'With Donald Trump as the option, Kamala Harris is rising - despite the US economy'
John Hansen is Charles L. Hutchinson Distinguished Service Professor of political science at the University of Chicago. Speaking to Srijana Mitra Das at Times Evoke, he discusses the US election:
What are the fundamental issues shaping 2024's American election?
Several conditions structure the outcomes that could occur in any Presidential election - those include the state of the economy, whether the US is at war or peace, the relative positioning of candidates on issues, incumbency and the balance of partisanship in the electorate. That is the broad frame around all elections.
HER AUDACITY OF HOPE: Kamala Harris has emerged as a powerful Democrat challenger to the regulations the Republicans, led by Donald Trump, propose to keep clamping on America, including controls on women’s rights (Image credits: Getty Images and iStock)
This year, a challenge before Democrats is the economy - it's not as strong as it could be. It's been a factor in the low approval President Biden faced. It still puts a drag on support to Kamala Harris, even though the Democrats have come back strongly under her. However, they have not yet reached the levels of support seen in 2020 when Joe Biden challenged Donald Trump. 
JUST SAY NO: Donald Trump is firmly anti migration (Image credits: Getty Images and iStock)
Other topics are being forwarded by each party, seen as advantageous to their side - there's immigration for the Republicans and a whole range of issues the Democrats are framing as individual freedoms, from reproductive rights for women to opposing Republican efforts in some states to restrict what people can teach and read.
HIS-TREE: A refugee of failing states and climate change at the US border(Image credits: Getty Images and iStock)
We've seen a rather dazzling Democrat National Convention (DNC) in Chicago - how did it reflect modern America?
The DNC and the Republican Convention preceding it are basically four-day infomercials - an opportunity for the party to get energised and excited. With this DNC, there has been a real spotlight on diversity, reflecting the party's leadership. The leader of the party in the House was Nancy Pelosi, a woman, it's now Hakeem Jeffries, an African-American male and, of course, there is
Kamala Harris, the first woman to serve as Vice-President as well as the first African-American and Asian-descent person to do so. Diversity was part of the Democratic Party's nomination reforms in the 1970s, which mandated representation for minorities and young people. The Republicans have invested a lot less in this, as you can tell from their Convention.
The other theme is of a 'comeback' win - this evokes a party that was counted out, suddenly reversing its fortunes. A story on many minds is the 1948 campaign when President Truman was written off but he still prevailed. This is another subtext.
What kinds of political mobilisation will be used now?
Social media has become extremely important - this was actually pioneered by Barack Obama's campaign in 2008. Part of the reason for him having so many rallies was to collect people's cell phone numbers and contact them by text, ask for funds and get them out to vote. What is new in the mobilisation toolkit now is generative artificial intelligence. We've seen some used already in political advertising and news 'disinformation' but we need to see how AI tools will unfold in identifying people who might be open to your message, etc.
Which interest groups could converge with which party now?
On the Republican side, the evangelical Christian community is possibly the segment most loyal to Donald Trump - even though he has shown signs of trying to back away from the associations that brought with it. In that sense, the most interesting thing about his choice of Vice-Presidential nominee is that JD Vance is not Mike Pence. In 2016, Trump felt the need to shore up support in this crucial Republican constituency - he clearly didn't in 2024. Another is the big business community where Trump has managed to bring some people on, especially from tech, who were previously standoffish towards him - this includes Elon Musk. However, the economic elites are wary of Trump because of his divisiveness and policies on trade and regulation.
The Democrat constituencies include minority voters, African-Americans, Latinos - and there will be a significant effort to mobilise women. It will also be interesting to see the degree to which Kamala Harris, being the first Asian-American Presidential nominee, will enable the Democrats to solidify support from this huge group which ranges from Indians to Chinese and Vietnamese, the latter being like the Cubans of Asia in terms of US politics.
HER ROOTS: Due to Harris, even the dosa plays a cameo in the US polls (Image credits: Getty Images and iStock)
Kamala Harris leads in multiple polls - will this sustain?
I'd anticipate Harris' support will fall back somewhat - the question is how far. I wasn't surprised there was a very positive reaction to her entry - a lot of that was also many Democrats coming home after the losses Biden suffered following his disastrous debate. Harris has
managed to restore that support - and get more. There is usually a surge of enthusiasm around a challenger when people don't really like the other candidate and discover a fresh face. Here, very few people are likely to forget the alternative to Kamala Harris is Donald Trump.
Times Evoke Americana is an occasional series on the USA
What are the fundamental issues shaping 2024's American election?
Several conditions structure the outcomes that could occur in any Presidential election - those include the state of the economy, whether the US is at war or peace, the relative positioning of candidates on issues, incumbency and the balance of partisanship in the electorate. That is the broad frame around all elections.
This year, a challenge before Democrats is the economy - it's not as strong as it could be. It's been a factor in the low approval President Biden faced. It still puts a drag on support to Kamala Harris, even though the Democrats have come back strongly under her. However, they have not yet reached the levels of support seen in 2020 when Joe Biden challenged Donald Trump.
Other topics are being forwarded by each party, seen as advantageous to their side - there's immigration for the Republicans and a whole range of issues the Democrats are framing as individual freedoms, from reproductive rights for women to opposing Republican efforts in some states to restrict what people can teach and read.
We've seen a rather dazzling Democrat National Convention (DNC) in Chicago - how did it reflect modern America?
The DNC and the Republican Convention preceding it are basically four-day infomercials - an opportunity for the party to get energised and excited. With this DNC, there has been a real spotlight on diversity, reflecting the party's leadership. The leader of the party in the House was Nancy Pelosi, a woman, it's now Hakeem Jeffries, an African-American male and, of course, there is
Kamala Harris, the first woman to serve as Vice-President as well as the first African-American and Asian-descent person to do so. Diversity was part of the Democratic Party's nomination reforms in the 1970s, which mandated representation for minorities and young people. The Republicans have invested a lot less in this, as you can tell from their Convention.
What kinds of political mobilisation will be used now?
Social media has become extremely important - this was actually pioneered by Barack Obama's campaign in 2008. Part of the reason for him having so many rallies was to collect people's cell phone numbers and contact them by text, ask for funds and get them out to vote. What is new in the mobilisation toolkit now is generative artificial intelligence. We've seen some used already in political advertising and news 'disinformation' but we need to see how AI tools will unfold in identifying people who might be open to your message, etc.
Which interest groups could converge with which party now?
On the Republican side, the evangelical Christian community is possibly the segment most loyal to Donald Trump - even though he has shown signs of trying to back away from the associations that brought with it. In that sense, the most interesting thing about his choice of Vice-Presidential nominee is that JD Vance is not Mike Pence. In 2016, Trump felt the need to shore up support in this crucial Republican constituency - he clearly didn't in 2024. Another is the big business community where Trump has managed to bring some people on, especially from tech, who were previously standoffish towards him - this includes Elon Musk. However, the economic elites are wary of Trump because of his divisiveness and policies on trade and regulation.
The Democrat constituencies include minority voters, African-Americans, Latinos - and there will be a significant effort to mobilise women. It will also be interesting to see the degree to which Kamala Harris, being the first Asian-American Presidential nominee, will enable the Democrats to solidify support from this huge group which ranges from Indians to Chinese and Vietnamese, the latter being like the Cubans of Asia in terms of US politics.
Kamala Harris leads in multiple polls - will this sustain?
I'd anticipate Harris' support will fall back somewhat - the question is how far. I wasn't surprised there was a very positive reaction to her entry - a lot of that was also many Democrats coming home after the losses Biden suffered following his disastrous debate. Harris has
managed to restore that support - and get more. There is usually a surge of enthusiasm around a challenger when people don't really like the other candidate and discover a fresh face. Here, very few people are likely to forget the alternative to Kamala Harris is Donald Trump.
Times Evoke Americana is an occasional series on the USA
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